On July 15, 2008, the Dow Jones Average was down over 20% from its all time high of 14,280 in October of 2007. Since then we have seen oil triple, the housing market burst, financial stocks tank. The outcome was a 20% overall market drop.
Now we have come off the lows & are back at 11,600 so now the question is are we done with this bear market, which is classified as a 20% market decline, are we just seeing a bounce and further downturns. The news we have received today are suggesting we are not through the woods of where the bears live. Inflation increased in July the most in 17 years and housing prices are still falling by 7%. Now that is July news but still not a good sign that we are still in a decline in home prices. Is this news priced in the market or will more bad news break us?
I think the only relief we have seen is the on the oil front where we are down to $115 per barrel. If you look at a chart from oil to the stock market is like looking into a mirror. The price of oil peaked around July 15, the same time the Dow was making new lows. Since then oil is down & the Dow is up over 900 points in a month. I would want to wait just a little longer before we know if we are out of the woods yet.
The economy is still sluggish & are worried about the weakness in the dollar. The financial have rebounded nicely & they are tempting but I am staying on the sidelines on the financials for now.